Turmoil in Transnistria: What might Putin want with a Moldovan breakaway region?
The mysterious explosions that rocked a thin strip of land in the small ex-Soviet nation of Moldova this week are fueling concerns that the war in Ukraine could spill over its borders and into Europe.
The instability in the Russian-speaking enclave of Transnistria has also raised questions over whether Russia will attempt to send troops stationed there on a fresh incursion into Ukraine as it refocuses on gaining full control over the country’s eastern Donbas region. Could the Kremlin even create a pretext to try to exert more control over the disputed territory on NATO’s southern flank?
NBC News looks at what happened in Transnistria and whether it could become a new flashpoint in Russia’s invasion.
What is Transnistria?
The breakaway region is a long and narrow sliver of land that extends between the eastern bank of the Dniester River in Moldova and the southwestern border of Ukraine.
It declared independence from then-Soviet Moldova in 1990. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, pro-Russian separatists in the region fought with Moldovan government forces.
As part of a 1992 cease-fire agreement, a permanent contingent of Russian troops stayed in Transnistria as peacekeepers and to guard ammunition depots.
While accounts vary, the peacekeeping force now numbers around 1,000–1,500 troops, according to Emily Ferris with the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. Few of the soldiers are Russian, with most being local men who have been given Russian passports, according to Ferris.
The region is not internationally recognized as a separate state — including by Russia — and is formally considered part of Moldova. Still, the enclave has its own currency and army, and functions like a separate state governed by a Moscow-aligned government. Its flag still bears the Soviet hammer and sickle.
It has a population of 470,000, with its capital in Tiraspol. Most people in the region speak Russian, although residents identify themselves as ethnically Russian, Moldovan and Ukrainian.
The area has remained generally peaceful for the last 30 years, becoming one of several “frozen conflicts” in the former Soviet region.
What happened there this week, and why is it important?
On Monday, explosions rocked the headquarters of Transnistria’s state security ministry in Tiraspol. These were followed by more blasts on Tuesday at a broadcasting facility when two radio masts near the border with Ukraine were knocked out of service. The region’s authorities also reported an attack on a military unit, but did not say when it took place. On Wednesday, they said shots were fired toward a village that houses a large ammunition depot.
No casualties were reported and no one has claimed responsibility for the incidents, but local authorities labelled them “terrorism attacks” and heightened the region’s security alert level. The region’s president, Vadim Krasnoselsky, suggested without evidence that Ukraine could be behind the attacks. Russia said it was “concerned” by the developments.
Kyiv fears the Russia-aligned breakaway region right next door could be used as a launchpad for new attacks on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has blamed Russia for trying to destabilize the situation in Transnistria, saying the Ukrainian army is ready for a “possible escalation” by Russian troops there.
Moldovan authorities are also on edge, sensitive to any sign of worsening security in Transnistria that could pit it against Moscow.
The country’s authorities were alarmed last week when, speaking of Russia’s new objectives in Ukraine, a top general, Rustam Minnekayev, said: “Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria.”
Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest nations and heavily reliant on Russia for its energy, and has been ruled by Moscow-friendly leaders for years.
“They have almost no military to speak off,” said Jonathan Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute. “There’s almost no ability for them to respond in any way.”
Moldovan President Maia Sandu, a Western-leaning politician who last month signed a formal application for her country to join the European Union, convened an urgent security council meeting in light of the attacks and blamed forces within Transnistria who, she said, were “interested in destabilizing the situation.”
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